International problems Journal Archive


International problems Vol. 64 No. 2/2012

Content

FORECASTING INFLATION IN ROMANIA TO IMPROVE THE MONETARY POLICY
Mihaela BRATU
International problems, 2012 64(2):131-143
Abstract ▼
Based on data of inflation forecasts provided quarterly by the National Bank of Romania, forecast intervals were built using the method of historical forecast errors. Forecast intervals were built considering that the forecast error series is normally distributed of zero mean and standard deviation equal to the RMSE (root mean squared error) corresponding to historical forecast errors. The author introduced as a measure of economic state the indicator– relative variance of the phenomenon at a specific time in relation with the variance on the entire time horizon. For Romania, when inflation rates follows an AR (1), She improved the technique of building forecast intervals taking into account the state of the economy in each period for which data were recorded. The author concludes that it is necessary to build forecasts intervals in order to have a measure of predictions uncertainty.
THE SUCCESSION OF INTERNATIONAL TREATIES IN CONTEMPORARY PRACTICE
International problems, 2012 64(2):144-179
Abstract ▼
Succession of states is a process of substitution of state subjects concerning responsibility of international legal relations of the territory to which the succession relates to. No general rules and unwillingness of states to apply particular rules on succession often caused extreme difficulties in the past in analysing the succession of treaty rights and obligations. As a totally incomplete system that would serve to regulate all problems caused by the change of the state territorial sovereignty in time the law of succession has manifested a tendency towards “adjustment” of customary rules to the factual situation. The contemporary examples of dissolution of the USSR, Czechoslovakia and SFR Yugoslavia, re-unification of Germany, as well gaining of independence by the Baltic States prove the assertion mentioned above. However, succession does not always prejudice legal substitution of states with regard to their rights and obligations. The study of the legal consequences of the process of succession of states presumes the application of a comparative method in the analysis of the state practice as well as the implementation of rules and principles of international law codificated in the 1978 Vienna Convention on Succession of States in Respect of Treaties.
MILITARY NECESSITY IN GENEVA CONVENTIONS OF 1949 ABSTRACT
Vladan JONČIĆ, Miloš PETROVIĆ
International problems, 2012 64(2):180-201
Abstract ▼
The fundamental question of international law of armed conflict is the question of military necessity principle in international law of armed conflict, ie. in international humanitarian law. Hearings on this issue is necessary because it is still the danger that the principle of recognition of the needs of military regulations and deceive the application of international law of armed conflict. That’s why the military needs to be seen as a permitted deviation from compliance with rules of war. Extreme, this concept has led to the emergence of the theory of the military. Its radical variant of the proceeds from the Maxims of German classical scholars of international law. The result of theoretical assumptions had the effect of limiting the acceptance of military necessity of the first codification of the day. The four Geneva Conventions of 1949. The heavily consider the military. In all the texts of international conventions is determined by military necessity, as a circumstance or set of circumstances which affect the duty of obeying the regulations of international law. In international law there is no general rule of military necessity as a basis or reason for justified violations of rules of international law of armed conflict. The rules of international law represent a compromise between the desire for a decoration rules of warfare and the need to ensure all the necessary tools that can lead to victory. The four Geneva Conventions of 1949. the military need to provide in terms of the principles of humanity. Set rules on military necessity in the Geneva Conventions give the right correction factor in the role of the law of armed conflict. The Geneva Conventions there is a degree of confusion in terminology, where the concept of military necessity needlessly allocated a number of synonyms. This is because the international law of armed conflict and emerged as a normative regulation of proportionality between the military needs) and general principles and humane principles.
POLITICAL DISCOURSE OF EXTREME RIGHT IN WESTERN EUROPE: THE IMMIGRATION ISSUE
Vladimir GREČIĆ, Srđan KORAĆ
International problems, 2012 64(2):202-232
Abstract ▼
The paper is an attempt to identify the basic characteristics and changes in the European migration flows in the last twenty years and to point to their possible implications on the changes in support to far right in West European countries. The analysis shows that it is almost impossible to generalise the characteristics of the migration flows and their effects since the general picture differs from country to country in the number of foreign population and their share in the total number of inhabitants of the EU members which are mostly receiving countries, the net immigration rate and the number of applications for asylum. Although the rounds of EU enlargement in 2004 and 2007 have not caused mass migrations within the Union, the political discourse of far right is just focused on immigration policy. The authors point to the fact that such a social milieu has been gradually created that can induce a part of followers of far right to resort to violence and to weaken consensual mechanisms of the multi-cultural West European societies for a long term.
GEOPOLITICS OF THE HORN OF AFRICA
Milovan RADAKOVIĆ
International problems, 2012 64(2):233-254
Abstract ▼
At the beginning, author provides concretization of terms geopolitics and conflict and an explanation of geographical term Horn of Africa. In the following discussion, characterization and classification of the conflict between African countries is carried out. The work also comprises an analysis of geopolitical characteristics of the Horn of Africa and provides a brief synthesis of the countries in the region. Further, it explains the mutual relations and the nature of the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, current military presence in the Horn of Africa and the importance of Bab-el-Mandeb strait. The author analyzes energy connection between Horn of Africa and the Middle East, regional and interregional impacts on the Horn of Africa countries and gives concluding remarks.

Book review

KAPITALNA ULAGANJA I PROJEKTNO FINANSIRANJE
Stevan RAPAIĆ
International problems, 2012 64(2):255-257
ISTORIJA DIPLOMATIJE
Čedomir ŠTRBAC
International problems, 2012 64(2):257-259
DOBROSUSEDSKI ODNOSI U SVETLU SRPSKO-BOSANSKOHERCEGOVAČKOG PITANJA
Jelica GORDANIĆ
International problems, 2012 64(2):259-261