AN INNOVATED PARADIGM OF GEOPOLITICAL PHENOMENA QUANTIFICATION: INTERPRETATIONS, METHODS, AND DATA SOURCES

STEKIĆ Nenad (Istraživač-pripravnik u Institutu za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd), nenad.stekic@diplomacy.bg.ac.rs

Research of geopolitical phenomena and processes is being characterized by the scholarly tendency to opt for qualitative research strategies with the complementary use of descriptive statistical methods. The states’ behaviour within the international system in the manner of conducting their geopolitical code has not been the subject of significant quantitative interest in academic thought over the last decades of the 20th century. A massive emergence of datasets as instruments of quantification, which index geopolitical phenomena, has been accompanied by the rise of quantitative geopolitical studies at the end of the last century. This paper aims to present the current situation in academic discourse related to the review of the most used quantitative methods in the study of geopolitical phenomena and to analyze the interpretation of the findings of such research. The key advantage of quantifying geopolitical phenomena is also their biggest problem – the data sources diversity used to quantify different phenomena results in many inconsistencies, ranging from research practices, research methods and techniques to the interpretation of statistical findings. Based on the review of existing literature regarding the shatterbelt concept and insights into some of the individual quantitative research, the author preliminary defines three research stages in the quantification of geopolitics and concludes the quantitative approach is underdeveloped in the study of this scientific discipline. In addition, existing data collection and collection methods and techniques are not sufficiently systematic or uniform, but provide a fruitful basis for considering long-term processes taking place in a particular geographical area.

Keywords: geopolitics, statistics, quantification, quantitative research design, databases, artificial intelligence, armed conflicts