ARMED FORCES MODERNISATION AND SHIFTS IN THE PERCEPTION OF THE CHINESE THREAT

PEJIĆ Igor (Istraživač pripravnik u Institutu za strategijska istraživanja Univerziteta odbrane, Beograd), igor.pejic@mod.gov.rs

Following the principles of realist school of international relations we are analysing the shifts in Chinese military budget, military posture and overall modernization of armed forces before and after the American “Pivot” to Asia. These results are later compared to the United Statesʼ foreign policy and military posture in East Asia that had changed in the past decade. Employing Waltʼs theory of balance of threat in the following article we have analyzed the shifts in Chinese military power and how other regional actors’ perceptions had changed during the last two decades of the 21st century. China that began internal balancing at the end of the twentieth century wasnot perceived as a threat to American interests in East Asia, which could potentially alter the regional status quo. The United States along other regional countries didnot perceive Chinese growing military power that was primarily land based, as a factor that should be contained. However, things started to change as Beijing assertiveness in South China Sea alerted other regional actors of Chinese growing naval power and political aspirations. As the research results show, the idea that any kind of balancing can lead to revisionism in the unipolar system is only partially correct concept which can be affected by intensity and nature of balancing politics.

Keywords: China, the United States, internal balancing, balance of power