MEĐUNARODNI PROBLEMI

Emerging and disruptive technologies in the Western Balkans: Do we need a new arms control regime?

Jevtić Miloš (Faculty of Diplomacy and Security, University “Union – Nikola Tesla”, Belgrade), jevtic_milos@yahoo.com
Kostić Šulejić Marina (Institute of International Politics and Economics, Belgrade), marina@diplomacy.bg.ac.rs

The subject of this paper is to examine the relationship between the emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) and the sub-regional arms control regime in the Western Balkans (WB), established by the Agreement on Sub-Regional Arms Control, signed on June 14, 1996, in Florence (the Agreement). The main research question is: Do the EDTs that the WB countries possess or are planning to acquire influence the existing arms control equation in the WB and, if yes, do we need a new arms control regime? Authors explore this question through the analysis of EDTs that have taken roots in the WB and are likely to grow significant in the future, and WB sub-regional arms control regime, taking EDTs as one of the variables that challenges the existing arms control regime in this region. They compare the current EDT capacities that Western Balkan states possess, as well as the potential of those EDTs to disrupt the balance of forces set by the Agreement. The authors conclude that, although we do not need a completely new arms control agreement in the WB, having in mind the flexibility of the existing one, a responsible approach would include an update of the current arms control regime, especially regarding the new confidence and security building measures (CSBMs), including increased transparency on the acquirement and the nature of potential use of EDTs.

Keywords: emerging technologies, disruptive technologies, arms control, sub-regional arms control, Western Balkans