MEĐUNARODNI PROBLEMI

The Impact of the Russian Invasion on Ukraine on Neutrality in Europe: The Case of Sweden, Finland, Austria and Serbia

Stojković Dejan (University of Defence, Belgrade, Serbia), dejan.stojkovic@mod.gov.rs
Golubović Marko (University of Defence, Belgrade, Serbia), marko.golubovic@mod.gov.rs

This paper analyzes the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the concept of neutrality in Europe through the cases of Sweden, Finland, Austria, and Serbia to of identify the factors that shape state decisions on maintaining or abandoning neutrality. The research relies on the theoretical frameworks of neoclassical realism, social constructivism, and liberalism to explain the differences in the security and defense policies of the analyzed states. The central hypothesis posits that these decisions are not driven solely by immediate security threats but arise from a complex interaction of historical, political, economic, and social factors. The methodological framework is based on a comparative approach and content analysis of political documents, public statements, and academic sources, providing a deeper understanding of the institutional and discursive elements influencing states’ strategic choices. The findings indicate that Sweden and Finland’s decisions to abandon military neutrality and join NATO, as well as Austria and Serbia’s decisions to retain their neutral statuses while adapting to contemporary geopolitical circumstances, are shaped by a complex interplay of historical experiences, political priorities, economic dependencies, and dominant discourse. The study concludes that neutrality in contemporary international relations is a flexible and dynamic concept whose sustainability depends not only on external threats but also on institutional frameworks, strategic interests, and states’ political identities.

Keywords: Ukrainian crisis, security policy, defense policy, foreign policy, collective defense, international relations